BC copper oscillated and closed higher, with the price spread inversion expanding. Tariffs and inflation disrupted the weak supply and demand, continuing the trend [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2508 contract opened at 69,160 yuan/mt, closing the day with a positive candlestick, supported by the lower Bollinger Band at the bottom. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper 2508 contract fluctuated downward initially, touching an intraday low of 69,020 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually shifted upward, reaching 69,380 yuan/mt. During the day session, the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, fluctuating considerably, and ultimately closed at 69,180 yuan/mt, up 0.06%. Open interest reached 4,480 lots, a decrease of 21 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume reaching 2,900 lots. From a macro perspective, Trump recently stated that he would initiate tariff measures against small economies, with rates potentially slightly exceeding 10%. Relevant tariff actions are still being advanced. Meanwhile, the MoM increase in the US June CPI hit a five-month high, raising market concerns that the tariff policy's impact on inflation is beginning to emerge. On the fundamental side, during the delivery period, there was no large-scale outflow of warrants, and the spot market remained relatively tight. On the demand side, affected by the off-season, downstream consumption sentiment was weak, leading to a sluggish demand side. Currently, the market still maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand.

The SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,980 yuan/mt. If based on the most-traded BC copper 2508 contract price of 69,180 yuan/mt, its after-tax price would be 78,173 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2508 contract and the BC copper contract was -193, maintaining an inverted spread and widening compared to the previous day.